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EMOTIONAL REACTIONS PREDICTIVE OF SERIES PICKUPS & RENEWALS

Despite the digital revolution and the evolving ecosystem within the entertainment space, ratings are still the most valuable metric by which shows are measured. While ratings are the definitive metric by which a show gets picked up for a full season or replaced for a new one, social media has been a leading indicator in how TV networks are prioritizing data to make key programming and marketing decisions. With that in mind, Canvs partnered with MAGNA GLOBAL and looked to answer whether or not emotional data to programming can determine if a show will be renewed prior to its official network announcement.

Methodology

Canvs, the technology platform which analyzes emotions, worked with MAGNA GLOBAL to determine how far out they were able to predict whether a show would be picked up for a full season or a new season. Canvs and MAGNA GLOBAL analyzed data from 20 television shows within the Fall 2015 season (August 1, 2015, to February 9, 2016).

The following Social TV data was provided by Canvs:

  • Volume: Tweet volume across shows analyzed
  • Reaction Rates: Canvs’s proprietary measurement of an audience’s emotional resonance to an airing or season
  • Proprietary Scores:
    • Love
    • Excited
    • Crazy
    • Funny

 

Key Findings

83Percent

Canvs injected their data into MAGNA GLOBAL’s predictability study to determine if data improved its predictability. Canvs’ Reaction data improved predictability from 58% to 83% against 2014-2015 Fall Season Programming.

3Weeks

On average, Canvs predicted renewal of shows three weeks prior to official network announcements.

87Days

The farthest prediction-day to show-renewal-announcement-day was 87 days with FOX’s Scream Queens.

35Days

CBS’s Supergirl was predicted to be renewed 35 days prior to the network’s announcement.

14Days

NBC’s Blindspot was predicted to be renewed 14 days prior to the network’s announcement.


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